Oh What a Prior
---------------

Music:  Frankie Valli and the Four Seasons 
        (December 1963/Oh What a Night)
Lyrics:  Mark Glickman

Recorded July 9, 2008, at Glickman Studios Inc (a.k.a. Mark's apartment).
Mixed and converted to MP3 that very same day by Mark Glickman.

Vocals:  Mark Glickman
Various midi-programmed instruments (incl. drums):  Unknown

Notes:  The work that went into this one involved merging
the best parts of two different midi arrangements, selecting
the appropriate soft-synths, and then laying the vocal
tracks on top. I may rerecord the vocal tracks, but this
will do for now.  I performed the song at the 2008
International Society of Bayesian Analysis conference in
Hamilton Island, Australia, in July.  When I say I "may"
need to rerecord the vocals, I mean that Frankie Valli is
probably rolling in his grave when this version plays, and he's 
not even dead.

Lyrics:

Oh what a prior
A unimodal proper density
She captured all my subjectivity
What a function, what a prior

Oh what a prior
Tall and thin, right then I understood
She towered over every likelihood
Oh I believed her, what a prior

Oh I, I fit a Bayesian model after all
and assumed
that my results would verify the truth

Oh what a prior
Elicited from deep inside my head
Expert thought I would not use instead
Oh I committed to the prior

I saw the others dressed in uniform attire
But when she came to me, I knew my data would not defy her!

Oh what a prior
I was so sure but I could make no sense
Of this false posterior inference
Oh I got bitten by a prior