- I presented one of the plenary talks at the
Conference on Advances in Interdisciplinary Statistics and
Combinatorics at the University
of North Carolina, Greensboro on October 13, 2007,
Bayesian locally-optimal design of knockout tournaments.
- The paper Bayesian
locally-optimal design of knockout tournaments has been
accepted to the Journal
of Statistical Planning and Inference.
- I presented
Bayesian Locally-Optimal Design of Knockout Tournaments
at 4:00pm on July 28, 2008,
at the Department of Statistics, University of Auckland (New Zealand).
On Tuesday, October 28, 2008, I gave a lunchtime talk
"Differential Item Functioning in a Graded Response
IRT Model: A Bayesian Approach to Item Discrimination"
Health Care Policy Department at Harvard Medical School.
"Psychometric properties of the Spanish BASIS-24 mental
by Susan Eisen, Pradipta Seal, me, et al., has been accepted
and will appear in the Journal of Behavioral Health Services
- I am quoted in a
NY Times article
published on January 17, 2009,
and on the
NY Times Chess Blog on January 14, 2009,
concerning chess rating system formulas and dynamics.
On August 3, 2009,
I was awarded the 2009 Statistics in Sports Award by the
Section on Statistics in Sports of the American Statistical
The award was "in recognition of significant contributions
to the development of statistical methods for rating
competitors in games and sports."
I presented two talks at this year's
Statistical Meetings in Washgington, DC, in early
On Monday, August 3, I presented a lunchtime talk
Lessons from the World of Tournament Chess,
and on Thursday, August 6, I presented
Solving in Statistical Consulting with Limited Time and a
I co-organized (along with
"2009 New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports",
held at the Harvard University Science Center on
Saturday, September 26, 2009.
The paper "Predisposing characteristics, enabling
resources and need as predictors of utilization and clinical
outcomes for veterans receiving mental health services" by
Dee Fasoli, me, and Sue Eisen, has been accepted for
The paper "Improving risk adjustment of self-reported mental
health outcomes" by Amy Rosen, Sharmila Chatterjee, me,
Avron Spiro, Pradipta Seal and Sue Eisen has been accepted
for publication in the
Journal of Behavioral
Health Services and Research.
"Using magic in the teaching of probability and statistics"
by Lawrence Lesser
and me has been published in
Model Assisted Statistics and Applications,
in a special issue on teaching statistics problems.
The paper "The incremental value of self-reported mental health measures
in predicting functional outcomes of veterans" by Sue Eisen, Kathryn Bottonari,
Mark Glickman, et al.,
has been accepted for publication in the
Journal of Behavioral Health Services & Research.
I gave a talk at the
Statistics Symposium at Harvard University on April 17, 2010, on
Comparison Models with Tie Probabilities and
Order Effects as a Function of Strength.
I gave a discussion on August 1, 2010, of presentations in the
Analysis: Methods and Examples
session at the 2010 Joint Statistical Meetings
in Vancouver, British Columbia.
I presented a short course on Bayesian Statistics for
Chapter of the American Statistical Association
on Saturday, October 30, 2010.
The paper "Statistical consulting with limited resources: Applications
to practice" by me and five co-authors has been published in the Fall 2010
I have been elected the section program chair by the Section on Statistics
in Sports for the 2011 Joint Statistical Meetings in Miami Beach, FL.
I was quoted in the Wall Street Journal in a March 4, 2011 article
about the fairness of NCAA bracket construction.
I presented one of the keynote talks at the
BCASA Statistics Career Day, on Saturday, March 12, 2011.
I presented the talk
Is Slicing Significance Levels Producing Statistical Bologna?"
at the monthly methods seminar for the
Department of Quantitative Health Sciences
at the University of Massachusetts Medical School
on June 21, 2011.
My Glicko rating system
is being used by the start-up Smarterer
as a means to test profiency, as described in a
Boston Globe article.
I presented magic trick demos for statistics instruction
at the 2011 US
Conference on Teaching Statistics (USCOTS) on May 20, 2011, in Cary, NC.
The demos were video-recorded, and will be posted on
CAUSEweb.org in the near future.
"Paired Comparison Models with Tie Probabilities and Order Effects as a Function of Strength"
2011 Joint Statistical Meetings on August 2, 2011, in
Miami Beach, Florida.
I co-organized the
2011 New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (NESSIS),
held at Harvard University on Saturday, September 24, 2011.
A write-up of the event appeared in the
I am the program co-chair of the General Methodology section
(along with Yoonkyung Lee)
for the 2012 Joint Statistical Meetings.
I presented two featured talks
(as the 2012 Bohn Scholar) at the
40th Annual Mathematics and Statistics Conference - Statistics in Sports
Miami University of Ohio on September 28-29, 2012.
I have been promoted to Research Professor of Health Policy
and Management at the Boston University School of Public Health,
At long last, the iterative procedure in the
rating system has been fixed!
It is now usable without fear of crashing/hanging.
"A revealed preference ranking of US colleges and universities"
by Christopher Avery, me, Caroline Hoxby and Andrew Metrick,
has been published in the
Quarterly Journal of Economics.
A Feb 19, 2013
blog post in the Chronicle
of Higher Education has a nice description of the work in the paper.
Also, I have been quoted in a Feb 24, 2013
article in the Daily Californian about the paper,
as well as a Feb 26, 2013
Boston University Daily Free Press article.
I was quoted in a June 14, 2013
Wall Street Journal article
on statistical issues with the NSA's Prism program to collect
data on electronic communications.
I was a keynote speaker at the
4th International Conference on Mathematics in Sport
in Leuven, Belgium, June 5-7, 2013.
Assessing Alcohol and Drug Use Following Return
from Deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan: A Statistical Perspective
on August 5, 2013,
at this year's
Joint Statistical Meetings in Montreal.
I co-organized the
2013 New England Symposium on
Statistics in Sports (NESSIS),
held at Harvard University on Saturday, September 21, 2013.
The conference received some advance press in the
Connecticut by the numbers blog.
I gave the Field lecture keynote talk at the
Science Atlantic Mathematics, Statisics and Computer Science
Conference at the University of Prince Edward Island,
Charlottetown, PE, held on October 18-20, 2013.
I am organizing a special issue of the
Journal of Quantitative
Analysis in Sports on predicting NCAA tournament
call for papers
has been posted on the
ASA Statistics in Sports Section web site.
I have written an
to the paper "The calculation of the results of a tournament
as a maximum problem in the calculus of probabilities" by
which appears in the recently-published
Collected Works of Ernst Zermelo, Vol 2.
I gave a talk on "A Bayesian Dynamic Model
for Multi-competitor Sports" at the
New England Statistics Symposium at the
Harvard School of
Public Health on April 26, 2014.
I was also on the program committee for the conference.
fivethirtyeight.com wrote a
on March 19, 2014 on the
NCAA prediction contest I co-organized on kaggle.com.
I was the
Program Chair for the
Section on Statistics in Sports of the American Statistical Association.
Towards a Rating System for Multi-Competitor Games and Sports
on August 6, 2014
at the 2014 Joint Statistical
Meetings in Boston, MA.
"False discovery rate control is a recommended alternative to
Bonferroni-type adjustments in health studies"
by me, Sowmya Rao and Mark Schultz, has been
published in the
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology.
I have a research contract with the
US Olympic Committee
to evaluate rating systems applied to sports outcomes of Olympic athletes.
I have been honored as a Fellow of the American Statistical Association.
The American Statistical Association
has issued a
press release announcing the 2014 honorees.
Boston University also
announced the news.
I presented "Rankings in games/sports:
Viewing educational institutions as tournament participants"
at An Inquiry into Rankings in Education: Current Landscapes
and Prospects for the Future, hosted by the
American Educational Research Association
The conference took place on November 5-6, 2014, at
George Washington University.
I was a panelist on the future of Statistics in Sports at the
Future of Statistics Symposium
in Boston, MA, on Saturday, December 6, 2014.
The event was sponsored by the
Boston Chapter of the American Statistical Association.
I gave an invited guest lecture on "Using Game Results to Accurately Rate Players"
at the Games course (taught by
at Union College, Schenectady, NY, May 18, 2015.
"A stochastic rank ordered
logit model for rating multi-competitor games and sports" by
me and Jonathan Hennessy has been accepted for publication in the
Journal of Quantitative
Analysis in Sports.
I presented the invited talk
"Going downhill fast: The development of a rating system for Alpine downhill
skiing and other multi-competitor sports" at the
60th World Statistics Congress - ISI2015
in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on July 29, 2015.
A comparison of probabilistic rating systems for women's beach
volleyball at the
Statistical Meetings in Seattle, WA, on August 9, 2015.
"A Dynamic Model for Rating Multi-Competitor Games and Sports"
Second Annual Amherst College
Sports Analytics Forum on Sunday, March 29, 2015 (postponed from Feb 15).
I have been awarded two grants; one from the
National Heart, Lung
and Blood Institute (NHLBI) of the
National Institutes of Health (NIH), and
one from the
Agency for Health Research and Quality
Both grants are funding studies on developing statistical models for
measuring the impact of anti-hypertensive medication adherence
on blood pressure levels.
The NHLBI grant is aimed more at population-based inferences,
whereas the AHRQ study is focused more on forecasting and the development
of a clinical decision tool.
I was appointed Editor-in-Chief of the
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
for the 2015-2017 term.
The American Statistical Association
press release announcing the appointment.
Time for a career change!
I have moved to the
Harvard Statistics Department
as a full-time
Senior Lecturer on Statistics
in January, 2016.
"Measuring the effects of time-varying medication adherence
on health outcomes" at the
11th International Conference on Health Policy Statistics
in Providence, RI, on October 8, 2015.
(along with Harvard School of Public Health Senior Research Scientist
Scott Evans) the
2015 New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports,
which was held at Harvard University on Saturday, September 26, 2015.
I also gave the (video-recorded) talk
"A stochastic rank ordered logit model for
rating multi-competitor games and sports".
the award-winning dance band of high-achieving academic statisticians,
have had two recent gigs:
interview with the band members was published in the
AmStat News in May 2015.
Have us play at your weddings and
Bar Mitzvahs (and statistics conferences).
"A stochastic rank ordered logit model for rating multi-competitor games and sports"
on November 2, 2015 at the
Yale University Statistics Department seminar series.
"Measuring the effects of time-varying medication adherence on
health outcomes through latent states" at the
2016 ISBA World Meetings
in Sardinia, Italy, on June 13, 2016.
"Rating the Chess Rating System" as part of the 2016 Statistics and
Big Data Seminar Series at the
University of Rhode Island
in Kingston, RI, on April 8, 2016.
Videos of my 2011 USCOTS talk on
incorporating magic tricks into statistics courses
is now posted online.
(you may be sent to a page where you need to agree to terms and conditions
of using the site, after which you can then select the "magic" tab)